Valuing Mortality Risk in China: Comparing Stated-Preference Estimates from 2005 and 2016

We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the “value per statistical life” or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criterion that WTP for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents). We test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these validity criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in income implies an income elasticity of about 2.5

Valuing Mortality Risk in China: Comparing Stated-Preference Estimates from 2005 and 2016

We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the “value per statistical life” or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criterion that WTP for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents). We test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these validity criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in income implies an income elasticity of about 2.5

Quantifying the Uncertainties of a Bottom-Up Emission Inventory of Anthropogenic Atmospheric Pollutants in China

The uncertainties of a national, bottom-up inventory of Chinese emissions of anthropogenic $SO_2$, $NO_x$, and particulate matter (PM) of different size classes and carbonaceous species are comprehensively quantified, for the first time, using Monte Carlo simulation. The inventory is structured by seven dominant sectors: coal-fired electric power, cement, iron and steel, other industry (boiler combustion), other industry (non-combustion processes), transportation, and residential. For each parameter related to emission factors or activity-level calculations, the uncertainties, represented as probability distributions, are either statistically fitted using results of domestic field tests or, when these are lacking, estimated based on foreign or other domestic data. The uncertainties (i.e., 95% confidence intervals around the central estimates) of Chinese emissions of $SO_2$, $NO_x$, total PM, $PM_{10}$, $PM_{2.5}$, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) in 2005 are estimated to be −14%~13%, −13%~37%, −11%~38%, −14%~45%, −17%~54%, −25%~136%, and −40%~121%, respectively. Variations at activity levels (e.g., energy consumption or industrial production) are not the main source of emission uncertainties. Due to narrow classification of source types, large sample sizes, and relatively high data quality, the coal-fired power sector is estimated to have the smallest emission uncertainties for all species except BC and OC. Due to poorer source classifications and a wider range of estimated emission factors, considerable uncertainties of $NO_x$ and PM emissions from cement production and boiler combustion in other industries are found. The probability distributions of emission factors for biomass burning, the largest source of BC and OC, are fitted based on very limited domestic field measurements, and special caution should thus be taken interpreting these emission uncertainties. Although Monte Carlo simulation yields narrowed estimates of uncertainties compared to previous bottom-up emission studies, the results are not always consistent with those derived from satellite observations. The results thus represent an incremental research advance; while the analysis provides current estimates of uncertainty to researchers investigating Chinese and global atmospheric transport and chemistry, it also identifies specific needs in data collection and analysis to improve on them. Strengthened quantification of emissions of the included species and other, closely associated ones – notably $CO_2$, generated largely by the same processes and thus subject to many of the same parameter uncertainties – is essential not only for science but for the design of policies to redress critical atmospheric environmental hazards at local, regional, and global scales.Engineering and Applied Science

Prospects for shale gas production in China: Implications for water demand

AbstractDevelopment of shale gas resources is expected to play an important role in China's projected transition to a low-carbon energy future. The question arises whether the availability of water could limit this development. The paper considers a range of scenarios to define the demand for water needed to accommodate China's projected shale gas production through 2020. Based on data from the gas field at Fuling, the first large-scale shale gas field in China, it is concluded that the water intensity for shale gas development in China (water demand per unit lateral length) is likely to exceed that in the US by about 50%. Fuling field would require a total of 39.9–132.9Mm3 of water to achieve full development of its shale gas, with well spacing assumed to vary between 300 and 1000m. To achieve the 2020 production goal set by Sinopec, the key Chinese developer, water consumption is projected to peak at 7.22Mm3 in 2018. Maximum water consumption would account for 1% and 3%, respectively, of the available water resource and annual water use in the Fuling district. To achieve China's nationwide shale gas production goal set for 2020, water consumption is projected to peak at 15.03Mm3 in 2019 in a high-use scenario. It is concluded that supplies of water are adequate to meet demand in Fuling and most projected shale plays in China, with the exception of localized regions in the Tarim and Jungger Basins

Revealing the beneficial effect of protease supplementation to high gravity beer fermentations using "-omics" techniques

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Addition of sugar syrups to the basic wort is a popular technique to achieve higher gravity in beer fermentations, but it results in dilution of the free amino nitrogen (FAN) content in the medium. The multicomponent protease enzyme Flavourzyme has beneficial effect on the brewer's yeast fermentation performance during high gravity fermentations as it increases the initial FAN value and results in higher FAN uptake, higher specific growth rate, higher ethanol yield and improved flavour profile.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the present study, transcriptome and metabolome analysis were used to elucidate the effect on the addition of the multicomponent protease enzyme Flavourzyme and its influence on the metabolism of the brewer's yeast strain Weihenstephan 34/70. The study underlines the importance of sufficient nitrogen availability during the course of beer fermentation. The applied metabolome and transcriptome analysis allowed mapping the effect of the wort sugar composition on the nitrogen uptake.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Both the transcriptome and the metabolome analysis revealed that there is a significantly higher impact of protease addition for maltose syrup supplemented fermentations, while addition of glucose syrup to increase the gravity in the wort resulted in increased glucose repression that lead to inhibition of amino acid uptake and hereby inhibited the effect of the protease addition.</p

FieldML: concepts and implementation

The field modelling language FieldML is being developed as a standard for modelling and interchanging field descriptions in software, suitable for a wide range of computation techniques. It comprises a rich set of operators for defining generalized fields as functions of other fields, starting with basic domain fields including sets of discrete objects and coordinate systems. It is extensible by adding new operators and by their arbitrary combination in expressions, making it well suited for describing the inherent complexity of biological materials and organ systems. This paper describes the concepts behind FieldML, including a simple example of a spatially varying finite-element field. It outlines current implementations in established, open source computation and visualization software, both drawing on decades of bioengineering modelling software development experience

Effects of Yoga on Thalamic Gamma-Aminobutyric Acid, Mood and Depression: Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials

Objective: The Vagal-Gamma-Aminobutyric Acid (GABA) theory proposes that some yoga postures and breathing practices exert their effects through stimulation of vagal nerves (parasympathetic system) with associated brain GABA increases. To evaluate this theory, we compared results from a 12-week randomized controlled trial (RCT) of yoga in participants with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) with those of a similar RCT in healthy control participants (HC). Methods: In an RCT, magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and mood measures were acquired in subjects with MDD (n=15) prior to and following a 12-week yoga intervention. The same measures were obtained in the HC (n=17) group. In both studies, thalamic GABA/Creatine was obtained using MEGAPRESS at 4 Telsa at baseline (Scan-1), post-intervention (Scan-2), and immediately following a yoga session (Scan-3). Clinical scales were completed prior to each scan. Results: The MDD-group had significantly lower GABA compared to the HC at baseline (Scan-1, p=0.001), but not after 12 weeks of yoga, either before (Scan-2, p=0.12) or after a yoga session (Scan-3, p=0.20). Depressive symptoms decreased significantly in the MDD-group (p=0.0001), and anxiety improved in both groups. Conclusion: After a 12-week yoga intervention, MDD-group mood and anxiety measures improved with scores equivalent to those of non-depressed individuals. This study provides the first evidence of brain GABA increases associated with specific yoga postures and breathing practices in MDD. These results suggest potential benefits of specific yoga postures and breathing practices as monotherapy or augmentation to other treatments to reduce anxiety and depression in MDD

Patterns in atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols in China: emission estimates and observed concentrations

China is experiencing severe carbonaceous aerosol pollution driven mainly by large emissions resulting from intensive use of solid fuels. To gain a better understanding of the levels and trends of carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resulting ambient concentrations at the national scale, we update an emission inventory of anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) and employ existing observational studies to analyze characteristics of these aerosols including temporal, spatial, and size distributions, and the levels and shares of secondary organic carbon (SOC) in total OC. We further use ground observations to test the levels and inter-annual trends of the calculated national and provincial emissions of carbonaceous aerosols, and propose possible improvements in emission estimation for the future. The national OC emissions are estimated to have increased 29 % from 2000 (2127 Gg) to 2012 (2749 Gg) and EC by 37 % (from 1356 to 1857 Gg). The residential, industrial, and transportation sectors contributed an estimated 74–78, 17– 21, and 4–6 % of the total emissions of OC, respectively, and 49–55, 30–34, and 14–18 % of EC. Updated emission factors (EFs) based on the most recent local field measurements, particularly for biofuel stoves, led to considerably lower emissions of OC compared to previous inventories. Compiling observational data across the country, higher concentrations of OC and EC are found in northern and inland cities, while higher OC/ EC ratios are found in southern sites, due to the joint effects of primary emissions and meteorology. Higher OC/ EC ratios are estimated at rural and remote sites compared to urban ones, attributed to more emissions of OC from biofuel use, more biogenic emissions of volatile organic compound (VOC) precursors to SOC, and/or transport of aged aerosols. For most sites, higher concentrations of OC, EC, and SOC are observed in colder seasons, while SOC/ OC is reduced, particularly at rural and remote sites, attributed partly to weaker atmospheric oxidation and SOC formation compared to summer. Enhanced SOC formation from oxidization and anthropogenic activities like biomass combustion is judged to have crucial effects on severe haze events characterized by high particle concentrations. Several observational studies indicate an increasing trend in ambient OC/ EC (but not in OC or EC individually) from 2000 to 2010, confirming increased atmospheric oxidation of OC across the country. Combining the results of emission estimation and observations, the improvement over prior emission inventories is indicated by inter-annual comparisons and correlation analysis. It is also indicated, however, that the estimated growth in emissions might be faster than observed growth, and that some sources with high primary OC/ EC, such as burning of biomass, are still underestimated. Further studies to determine changing EFs over time in the residential sector and to compare to other measurements, such as satellite observations, are thus suggested to improve understanding of the levels and trends of primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China.Engineering and Applied Science